greetings all,
Alex suggested that i write a post about the state of the Red Sox as a team, and given my readership (PT, i’m looking at you), i thought that it would be a huge hit (not to be confused with a huge salary).
so, let’s review what we have. if the season were to start right now, this woudl be the sox presumable starting lineup:
2B: Mark Loretta
1B: Kevin Youkilis
DH: Ortiz
LF: Manny
RF: Trot Nixon
C: Varitek
3B: Mike Lowell
SS: Alex Cora
CF: Adam Stern
SP: Beckett
SP: Schilling
SP: Wakefield
SP: Wells
SP: Clement
SP: Arroyo
CL: Foulke
i have to say that this doesn’t make me feel good. add that we have good depth at 3B/1B (marte, snow) and almost no depth in the OF or the MI positions. I think that changes will happen before the year starts. as you can see, we have a glut of SP’s, and Wells will almost certainly be shipped off for OF help, with current rumors being that Jay Payton will get the nod. Dustin Pedoria is presumably working furiously on converting to SS, a position he hasn’t played since high school or something.
truth be told, this team reminds me of a poorly drafted fantasy team. It’s round 15 or so, you took too many pitchers in the first 7, and now you realize that grabbing two second basemen and no shortstop was a stupid idea, cause no one wants to trade you a SS without asking for something ridiculous. I did this a few years ago with a fantasy team, drafting a bunch of pitchers in the first 10 rounds, an almost no offense, and it was the only year in which i didn’t end up in the money for some fantasy baseball league of mine.
Of course things work differently with the red sox, and i can’t disparage any singular decision that they’ve made, but this is a team that is relying on quite a few “big ifs”. such as:
IF Beckett’s blister problems don’t continue
IF Lowell regains some semblance of form as a hitter
IF Schilling can be even somewhat effective
IF Foulke doesn’t shit the bed
IF Dustin Pedoria can contribute in the 2nd half
IF Kevin Youkilis turns into a decent hitter with 500AB’s (they’re projecting 15-20HR with a .400 OBP)
IF Manny remains somewhat happy
IF no one else gets injured (we are one jason varitek injury away from a starting lineup with John Flaherty)
then, and only then, will the red sox be a decent 95 win team this year. which, given toronto’s retooling and oaklands potential of having a full year with their rookie starters, will be exactly what it takes to win the WC
the yankees? forget about it. the yankees are the division front runners, and barring injury or rapid degredation amongst several of their players, i see no reason why they won’t take yet another division title.
now, things can change between then and now. one thing i did not mention is the Jo(h)ns, Papelbon and Lester, who the sox managed to hold onto this year, could both be excellent additions to the pitching staff, and would give us some room to trade a starter (arroyo) for a decent position player in case the Alex Cora at SS experiement doesn’t work out. There’s always the chance that Kapler can come back and contribute, but that was a pretty serious injury late in the season, and i don’t think he’s a full time player anyways. but we still need a 4th OF and pinch runner. besides, Trot will inevitably go on the DL for 3 weeks or so, as he does every year (not that i don’t love trot, but let’s be honest, he’s not durable).
So, with 45 days to go till pitchers and catchers report, we’re heavy on pitching and weak up the middle. And i don’t think those deals can be made now. so we hope that our strengths can beat out our weaknesses, and that toronto isn’t the looming giant they appear to be.
(sidenote: i actually think this is very possible. i like all of torontos additions, but each one of them had a pretty big question mark attached to them, be it experience as a closer, ability to get on base, or injury risk. Toronto could be a mirage)
my preseason prediction is that the sox win 92 games, and very very narrowly win the wild card.